The Sociology of Structural Disaster by Miwao Matsumoto

Author:Miwao Matsumoto [Matsumoto, Miwao]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Social Science, Disasters & Disaster Relief
ISBN: 9781315386164
Google: wjAXEAAAQBAJ
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2021-03-29T05:05:02+00:00

The connection between structural disaster and path-dependency: select perspectives from important cases

The framework of path-dependency has provided a conceptual tool for clarifying the fixed trajectory of technological development in nuclear power technology, such as light water reactors (LWR) (Cowan 1990; Arthur 2009).2 More generally, prior works have shown problems inherent in the pre-existing dominant energy technologies such as nuclear or fossil fuels (Vergragt 2012) or a centralized electricity-supplying system (Vleuten and Raven 2006) by appealing to the concept of lock-in and by also showing a way out of it by referencing emerging energy technologies such as renewables.3 Few attempts have been made, however, to specify the structural similarities between seemingly opposite technologies such as nuclear and renewable energy technologies. Nuclear technology is not the only energy technology to which the concept of lock-in can be used in clarifying the fixed trajectory of technology development. The fixed trajectory here means that: (1) the development trajectory of technologies is locked-in without any rational consideration of other alternatives, thereby virtually precluding any chance of their introduction later; (2) the social decision-making process involved is closed to outsiders.

This chapter investigates the ways in which novel development paths that were different from the pre-existing track were created, as well as the ways in which the path-dependent track of wind turbine technology development and diffusion was formed in Japan, focusing on the relationship between the above-mentioned two aspects involved in the fixed trajectory of technological development. Based on these investigations, the chapter argues that the path-dependent social process leading to lock-in can be regarded as a generating mechanism of structural disaster, and suggests a possible divergent path.

Tracing back to two original versions of path-dependency (David 1985; Arthur 1989), a common theme running through both is that an outcome in favor of a single dominant technology does not necessarily guarantee optimum technology selection. Some “chance elements” (David 1985) or “random events” (Arthur 1989) in the technology selection process can give rise to a single dominant technology regardless of its performance. This highlights the pitfalls of the so-called “Whig interpretation of history” – wherein the world always progresses, and this progress is inevitable – in describing, analyzing, and speculating on technological development (nuclear or renewable) with hindsight.

To substantiate such theoretical insights in individual cases, however, it is critical to examine the basic assumptions of the theory of path-dependency as clarified in Chapter 2. To reconfirm the assumptions, both versions of path-dependency equally assume that agents adopt technologies based on expected returns, as determined by current market forces represented by the accumulation of prior adoption and preference. If preference-laid agents are sensitive to technologies’ returns at a given time, then path-dependency could be derived from chance events under certain conditions. Since this is the basic structure of inference within the theoretical framework of path-dependency, there are two ways to substantiate the theoretical framework in individual cases: (1) the presence of agents who are sensitive to technologies’ returns in the market during the process of technological adoption, then path-dependency can

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